[News Focus] Debate on South Korea’s nuke armament reignited
2024-09-22 01:01:36 [行业动态] 来源:Anhui News
Debate has resurfaced over the possibility of South Korea’s nuclear armament as North Korea’s nuclear threat remains unabated with growing security rivalry in the region most recently stoked by Japan’s push for heavier armament.
Lingering doubts over the reliability of the U.S.’ nuclear umbrella has also added to the possibility that Seoul could seek a more viable way to bolster its self-defense capabilities to fend off Pyongyang’s security challenges, analysts said.
Charles Ferguson, head of the Federation of American Scientists, said in a recent report that the South could opt for nuclear armament should Japan acquire nuclear arms and should the North’s nuclear threats not be countered by the U.S.
“If the United States were perceived to not be able to reliably and credibly counter the threats posed by China and North Korea, prudent military planners in Japan and South Korea would want to take steps to have their own nuclear capabilities,” Ferguson said in the report.
“Finally, if Japan crosses the threshold to nuclear weapon acquisition, South Korea would feel compelled to follow suit. South Korean leaders would then not want to be vulnerable to both nuclear-armed North Korea and Japan.”
In the report, Ferguson also noted that Seoul could secure potential capabilities to produce dozens of nuclear warheads within five years, with “near-weapons-grade plutonium” from four pressurized heavy water reactors at its Wolseong power plant in Gyeongju, North Gyeongsang province.
The report came amid a lingering debate over South Korea’s “nuclear sovereignty” and its nonproliferation commitment. The debate remained intense until after Seoul signed a revised civilian atomic energy accord with Washington last month. Seoul officials said the accord paved the way for more efficient use of nuclear energy in South Korea.
Despite the talk of South Korea’s possible nuclear armament, most experts said it remains unlikely that Seoul will pursue nuclear arms given that any damage to the current Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty would seriously strain ties with Washington and drive Seoul into diplomatic isolation.
“For nuclear armament, a national leader should decide to break away from the NPT regime and should be ready to accept international criticism and isolation,” said a security expert, who requested anonymity.
“South Korean leaders, politicians and officials are not and will not be willing to take that risk. Considering that the U.S. is pushing for its vision of a “nuclear-free” world, South Korea, a staunch ally of the U.S., will not make a decision that undermines that vision.”
South Korea once pursued nuclear armament in the 1970s. Former President Park Chung-hee secretly pushed to develop nuclear weapons as security concerns rose, with Washington seeking to withdraw its troops from the Korean Peninsula.
Concerns over the North’s nuclear threats have been escalating as the communist state continues to improve its nuclear weapons capabilities including its technology to miniaturize nuclear warheads to mount on long-range missiles.
Amid Pyongyang’s technological advancement, no talks over Pyongyang’s denuclearization have been held since December 2008, which has further deepened security jitters surrounding the North’s nuclear adventurism.
Some observers presume that in the case of the U.S. being unable to stably provide “extended deterrence,” Seoul may have to pursue nuclear armament for its national survival. Extended deterrence refers to the U.S. commitment to defend the South against the North’s conventional and nuclear threats.
By Song Sang-ho (sshluck@heraldcorp.com)
Lingering doubts over the reliability of the U.S.’ nuclear umbrella has also added to the possibility that Seoul could seek a more viable way to bolster its self-defense capabilities to fend off Pyongyang’s security challenges, analysts said.
Charles Ferguson, head of the Federation of American Scientists, said in a recent report that the South could opt for nuclear armament should Japan acquire nuclear arms and should the North’s nuclear threats not be countered by the U.S.
“If the United States were perceived to not be able to reliably and credibly counter the threats posed by China and North Korea, prudent military planners in Japan and South Korea would want to take steps to have their own nuclear capabilities,” Ferguson said in the report.
“Finally, if Japan crosses the threshold to nuclear weapon acquisition, South Korea would feel compelled to follow suit. South Korean leaders would then not want to be vulnerable to both nuclear-armed North Korea and Japan.”
In the report, Ferguson also noted that Seoul could secure potential capabilities to produce dozens of nuclear warheads within five years, with “near-weapons-grade plutonium” from four pressurized heavy water reactors at its Wolseong power plant in Gyeongju, North Gyeongsang province.
The report came amid a lingering debate over South Korea’s “nuclear sovereignty” and its nonproliferation commitment. The debate remained intense until after Seoul signed a revised civilian atomic energy accord with Washington last month. Seoul officials said the accord paved the way for more efficient use of nuclear energy in South Korea.
Despite the talk of South Korea’s possible nuclear armament, most experts said it remains unlikely that Seoul will pursue nuclear arms given that any damage to the current Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty would seriously strain ties with Washington and drive Seoul into diplomatic isolation.
“For nuclear armament, a national leader should decide to break away from the NPT regime and should be ready to accept international criticism and isolation,” said a security expert, who requested anonymity.
“South Korean leaders, politicians and officials are not and will not be willing to take that risk. Considering that the U.S. is pushing for its vision of a “nuclear-free” world, South Korea, a staunch ally of the U.S., will not make a decision that undermines that vision.”
South Korea once pursued nuclear armament in the 1970s. Former President Park Chung-hee secretly pushed to develop nuclear weapons as security concerns rose, with Washington seeking to withdraw its troops from the Korean Peninsula.
Concerns over the North’s nuclear threats have been escalating as the communist state continues to improve its nuclear weapons capabilities including its technology to miniaturize nuclear warheads to mount on long-range missiles.
Amid Pyongyang’s technological advancement, no talks over Pyongyang’s denuclearization have been held since December 2008, which has further deepened security jitters surrounding the North’s nuclear adventurism.
Some observers presume that in the case of the U.S. being unable to stably provide “extended deterrence,” Seoul may have to pursue nuclear armament for its national survival. Extended deterrence refers to the U.S. commitment to defend the South against the North’s conventional and nuclear threats.
By Song Sang-ho (sshluck@heraldcorp.com)
(责任编辑:产品中心)
推荐文章
-
I went to an offline dating event for singles. Here's how it went.
It's a Wednesday night in south-east London and dozens of intrepid young single people are sitting c ...[详细] -
本报讯26日,2024年创友年会暨2023年度雅安市“创业明星”颁奖仪式举行,近六十名创业者与创业导师齐聚一堂,共赴“家宴”。此次活动总结了2023年创业服务工作成效,激励典型,展示创业者风采,搭建创 ...[详细]
-
为藏族群众义诊海拔4298米的折多山垭口、姑咱镇康和广场、瓦泽乡卫生院……一面红旗帜、一身白大褂,为寒冷的高原带来温暖。从泸定到雅江,沿着国道318线一路向西,雅安市中医医院以下简称市中医院)“红旗帜 ...[详细]
-
本报讯“他们跋涉山野密林,穿梭在雅安的崇山峻岭中,守护熊猫家园……”2月6日,记者从大熊猫国家公园雅安管理分局获悉,一批价值6万余元的野外应急药品送到了雅安野外熊猫巡护员工作队。据悉,这批野外应急药品 ...[详细]
-
South Korean lawmakers brace for US election as Harris, Trump diverge on North Korea
Democratic presidential nominee and US Vice President Kamala Harris waves from the stage on Day 4 of ...[详细] -
本报讯1月27日,由雅安市作家协会和雨城区民宗局、雅安市佛教协会联合举办的迎春诗会在雨城区澄清寺举行。诗会上,钟渔、刘江岳、黑辞、王进等雅安诗人和嘉宾声情并茂地朗诵了自己创作或喜爱的经典诗歌,并通过古 ...[详细]
-
本报讯日前,记者从四川雅投发展投资集团有限公司获悉,该公司下属四川蜀天信息技术有限公司收到了4项由国家知识产权局颁发的发明专利证书。此4项发明专利均由蜀天信息公司自主研发,分别为“一种基于意图识别的语 ...[详细]
-
少儿春晚录制现场主持人向市民拜年孩子们舞姿优美1月27日至28日,“龙腾虎跃闹新春雅安少年向未来”2024年雅安市第八届少儿春晚在雅安市文化艺术中心开机录制。本届少儿春晚,由雅安市融媒体中心主办,录制 ...[详细]
-
11 Unique Amaros and Liqueurs to Level Up Your Aperol Spritz
Spritzes, made of sparkling wine, soda water, and amaro, have become synonymous with summer in the U ...[详细] -
本报讯日前,记者从四川雅投发展投资集团有限公司获悉,该公司下属四川蜀天信息技术有限公司收到了4项由国家知识产权局颁发的发明专利证书。此4项发明专利均由蜀天信息公司自主研发,分别为“一种基于意图识别的语 ...[详细]
热点阅读