June 26 primary preview: NY, SC, Colorado, Utah, Maryland, Oklahoma, Mississippi.
Just how much is a Donald Trump endorsement worth in a GOP primary, when every Republican is declaring their love for the president? Races in South Carolina and Staten Island will test the president’s strength on Tuesday, as Trump-backed incumbents compete against challengers who are styling themselves in the president’s image.
Meanwhile, Democrats will be deciding—yet again—between candidates who excite their base and those who’ve positioned themselves to reach across the aisle, including a race that has drawn national attention in Maryland.
Voters will be casting votes in seven states on a busy Tuesday that will help clarify where the two parties stand at the halfway mark of 2018.
Here’s one race to watch in each state:
South Carolina Governor
Trump traveled to the Palmetto State on Monday night to give Gov. Henry McMaster one final push ahead of his GOP runoff against John Warren, a businessman and political newcomer who finished a surprise second in the gubernatorial primary earlier this month. The presidential visit was a fitting coda to a contest that, even by Republican standards, has become all about Trump. McMaster was one of Trump’s earliest political supporters in 2016, and the president has returned the favor this year time and again. But Warren, too, has taken a page out of the president’s playbook. He reportedly hired some of the same consultants and pollsters who worked on Trump’s campaign and has railed against McMaster, a career politician, much the same way Trump did against his establishment rivals two years ago. At a recent debate, Warren even promised to “drain the swamp” in Columbia.
McMaster narrowly missed out on securing the nomination outright during the primary, and he remains the heavy favorite heading into Tuesday. But polling has been hard to come by since the field narrowed to two, and the fact that Trump—as well as Mike Pence, this past weekend—felt compelled to head South suggests the president is less than certain that McMaster will prevail.
New York’s 11th Congressional District
It’s a similar story in this Staten Island district, where Trump-backed Rep. Dan Donovan is facing a primary challenge from Trump-like former congressman Michael Grimm, who resigned his seat in 2015 after pleading guilty to federal tax fraud. Grimm, now out of prison, is hoping to return to Congress by attacking Donovan over his votes against the GOP tax law and an Obamacare repeal, and by painting him as disloyal to the president.
Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement AdvertisementDonovan, a mild-mannered former district attorney, has been endorsed by Trump and has the support of much of the GOP establishment, which fears Grimm—who once threatened to throw a reporter off a balcony in the U.S. Capitol—will prove unelectable in November. An added twist: Grimm recently claimed that Donovan told him that he’d ask Trump to pardon Grimm if the former congressman dropped out of the race.
Democrats will be deciding on challengers in a handful of other swing districts upstate, where the party’s fortunes could be crucial to flipping the House in November.
Utah Senate
After being denied the nomination at the GOP convention in April, Mitt Romney is expected to coast to victory on Tuesday in his adopted home state. But the margin of victory will be worth watching, given Romney’s on-again, off-again relationship with the president. Romney happily accepted Trump’s endorsement for president in 2012 and then, four years later, emerged as the mouthpiece for the Never Trump movement. But after Trump won, Romney auditioned to be Trump’s secretary of state, then resumed criticizing him, before coming full circle in February—again accepting Trump’s endorsement, this time for the Senate. This week, with primary victory looking all but assured, Romney tried to stake a middle ground, promising voters he’ll continue to speak out against Trump when he sees fit, while simultaneously making it clear that, by and large, he’s on board with Trump’s policies.
Colorado’s 6th Congressional District
Democrats believe they have a great chance to unseat GOP Rep. Mike Coffman in a district Hillary Clinton won in 2016. But first they need to settle on a candidate—a process that hasn’t exactly been smooth so far. The DCCC is backing Jason Crow, an attorney and Army veteran, but Crow is facing a challenge from his left in the form of Levi Tillemann, a former Obama administration official who has called for Medicare for all.
Advertisement Advertisement AdvertisementTillemann has tried to use the party’s preference for Crow against him. Earlier this year, he leaked a recording of Rep. Steny Hoyer urging Tillemann to get out of the race for the good of the party, but the progressive anger over that tape appears to have largely fizzled, and Tillemann has struggled to match Crow’s fundraising. Still, Tillemann has done his best to stay in the news; last week, he intentionally pepper-sprayed himself to make a point about gun control.
Maryland Governor
Eight Democrats are competing for the chance to take on popular GOP Gov. Larry Hogan this fall. Not a whole lot separates the two favorites—former NAACP president Ben Jealous and county exec Rushern Baker—in terms of policy, but a familiar intra-party divide has emerged in regard to strategy. Jealous, who has the backing of both Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris and is running as the more progressive of the two, is promising to excite the Democratic base in the blue state with a combative campaign against Hogan. Meanwhile, Baker, who has the backing of former Gov. Martin O’Malley, is running toward the center in hopes of winning back moderates and independents this fall.
Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District
The Sooner State isn’t expected to affect which party controls the House this fall, but the Republican primary to replace former GOP Rep. Jim Bridenstine, who was appointed NASA administrator earlier this year, has turned into an unusual multifront battle inside the party.
Advertisement Advertisement AdvertisementKevin Hern, a McDonald’s franchisee who supports Trump, has a major cash advantage on the field, in no small part because he’s poured the better part of a $1 million into his campaign. But Hern made the mistake of angering the Club for Growth, and the conservative group is spending big to help Air Force veteran Andy Coleman, who also has the backing of the House Freedom Caucus. Meanwhile, a third candidate—state Sen. Nathan Dahm—has the support of both libertarians like Sen. Rand Paul and the National Rifle Association. With two other Republicans running as well, this one could be headed to a runoff, with the winner expected to coast to victory this fall.
Mississippi Senate
There’s not much left to be settled after the state’s primary earlier this month, but one runoff of note is between venture capitalist Howard Sherman and state Rep. David Baria for the Democratic nomination for Senate. Baria has been touting his ties to the Democratic establishment, while Sherman has branded himself a political outsider willing to reach across the aisle in the dark-red state. The winner, though, is unlikely to seriously challenge GOP Sen. Roger Wicker in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since the 1980s.
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