三家巨头已相继重整,下一个暴雷的会是谁?
这个月行业最为热议的事情无疑就是天邦和傲农两大上市巨头相继宣布重整。曾经风光无比的家巨猪企明星最终陷入同一困境实在令人唏嘘。犹记得去年正邦首先宣布重整的头已时候,笔者曾撰文大胆假设,相继下如果行情没有起色,重整步入重整的暴雷巨头恐怕不止正邦一家,不曾想竟然同时应验了两家。家巨事已至此,头已我们只能祝愿两家的相继下重整能取得双胞胎和正邦这样的圆满结局。
不过有行业人士在和笔者讨论的重整时候,更加大胆的暴雷表示,如果行业不发生根本性的改变,恐怕光重整这三家依然不够。这个猜想确实够狠,笔者也不敢再随便乌鸦嘴了。但是关于哪些企业已经亮起警告灯,笔者认为确实是有迹可循的。我们可以重点关注以下几大指标的变化。
一、负债率
判断企业是否安全的最显著指标之一就是负债率。农财智库一直密切关注上市猪企的负债率数据,根据最近一次官方发布,也就是2023年第三季度末的统计。猪企负债排名前三的,正是正邦、傲农、天邦这三家被迫重整的企业。他们也是仅有的三家负债率超过80%的企业。可以说超过80%负债率就已经是极度危险的信号了。
而紧随其后,负债率超过70%的企业还有五家,分别是京基智农、华统股份、新希望、金新农、新五丰。是否这五家企业就一定很危险呢,这倒是言之过早,一来他们的负债率离80%都还有一定距离,虽然高于行业平均值足以对他们敲响警钟,但也还有回旋的余地。二来,企业的经营状况还需要通过更多维度的指标衡量。
二、亏损额
非瘟之后,养猪的产能和行情都经历了过山车式的大起大落。正是在这个过程中,我们看到有的企业不幸的脱轨了。而有的企业则牢牢的踩准了行情。农财智库统计了自非瘟以来猪企的盈利变化情况。可以非常明显的体现出这一特征。
我们可以看到像行业龙头牧原,就做到了非瘟后前五年保持盈利,直到最惨的2023年才亏损,六年累计盈利高达495亿元。而我们再看六年累计亏损的前三名,又是这三位老熟人,正邦、傲农、天邦。可以说他们三又踩进了同一个坑。而我们再向下多看几眼。六年总亏损超十亿的企业还有金新农、唐人神、新五丰。在负债率排行第四的京基智农,凭借六年总盈利53亿的强劲表现,一举打消了外界的疑虑,当然这也和它的主营业务房地产表现好有关系,在养猪方面的表现仍然值得观察一番。
三、成本控制
如果说前两个指标反映的是结果的话,成本控制的能力则决定了巨头们能否继续在这轮低迷周期中坚持前行的能力。根据农财智库的统计,大部分上市猪企也都公布过近期的成本和未来的目标成本。
我们同样可以看到,傲农公布的2023年成本居高不下,正邦更是干脆就停止了对外公布成本,显然数字不会太好看。而进一步分析可以看到,目前成本高于16元/公斤,也就是业界通常认为的保本线的,仍然多达7家,其中立华股份、东瑞股份、大北农的成本高于17元/公斤,如果长此以往,企业的续航能力将遭受严重考验,因此各家巨头也不约而同的把成本目标定在了16元以下。我们也拭目以待,看看他们能否真正做到。
总而言之,指标再多也只是一个参考,对于巨头来说,倒下的同行足够敲响警钟,接下来如何正确把握企业的发展方向,稳健而长远的进步,才是对企业掌舵人的真正考验。
【策划】彭进
【记者】吴昊晖
【来源】南方农村报 农财宝典 新牧网
(责任编辑:资讯)
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