What pushed NK to form conciliatory mood?
2024-09-23 02:23:56 [行业动态] 来源:Anhui News
With US President Donald Trump appearing ready to engage with North Korea, questions are rising over what prompted the North Korean leader to offer conditions sufficient to warrant such a reaction from the US leader.
On Friday, the White House confirmed that Trump will meet North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un by May to achieve denuclearization, suggesting that Seoul’s envoys conveyed conditions satisfactory to the US leader.
Trump, who once called Kim a “little rocket man” and threatened to rain “fire and fury” on the isolated country, has maintained that dialogue with North Korea is only possible when the reclusive regime shows serious intent for denuclearization. North Korea appears to have met the preconditions now.
While details remain undisclosed, there are speculations that Trump accepted North Korea’s proposal for talks in return for its promise to stop developing its intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the US mainland or to allow inspections of its nuclear facilities in his country to dismantle its nuclear and missile programs in a verifiable way.
For what many see as a historic breakthrough to tackling the nuclear standoff on the Korean Peninsula, South Korean President Moon Jae-in and his top security advisor Chung Eui-yong have praised Trump’s maximum pressure campaign.
Experts, however, say that a number of factors -- including pressure from the US -- are at play, or it is a scenario North Korea has wanted to play all along.
Robert A. Manning, a senior fellow in the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, said there are “combined factors” behind the dramatic shift in North Korea’s posture.
“This is the first time comprehensive economic sanctions, ‘maximum pressure’ have been applied to North Korea, evidence suggests it is disrupting his economy and affecting the elite that is his base of support,” he said.
“Kim’s 25 missile tests and 3 nuclear tests have given him more confidence he can deter the US; Trump’s erratic, ‘madman’ demeanor has struck fear into Kim that Trump might actually attack.“
There are signs that multilayered sanctions against North Korea started to cause damage to its economy.
Lee Suk, a senior researcher at the Korea Development Institute, said in a report published on North Korea’s economy that North Korea’s industrial activities, agricultural production, trade are taking a hit from the international sanctions.
Its exports to China, its biggest trade partner, have dropped for 10 months straight between March and December last year, according to the report.
North Korea's leader Kim Jong-in. (Korean Central News Agency)
After the United Nations Security Council passed the 2375 resolution in September last year and China joined the sanctions regime, it saw a stiffer decease in its exports to China by up to 83 percent between October and December, the report said.
The United Nations Security Council first passed Resolution 1718 condemning the country’s first nuclear test and imposed sanctions on the communist state, including the supply of heavy weaponry, missile technology and material.
But in the wake of a series of North Korea’s nuclear and missile tests, the UNSC began to target the overall economy of North Korea. The UNSC adopted the sanctions resolution 2375 after the North’s sixth nuclear test on Sept. 3, aiming to slash North Korea‘s oil imports by 30 percent and ban exports of North Korean textiles. In December 2017, UNSC passed Resolution 2397 imposing restrictions on oil imports, as well as metal, agricultural and labor exports.
Others say it is too early to tell whether sanctions are actually biting.
“I think sanctions started to affect North Korea’s economy, but it remains to be seen how much of a toll the sanctions are taking,” Lim Kang-taeg, a researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification. “North Korea‘s imports and exports cannot help but decease this year.”
“Given the North Korean regime’s system and pattern of decisions made so far, economic problems are not its main concerns. It may see it as the right time to talk to the US to get a security guarantee it wants, with the US increasingly considering a military option.”
The Kim Jong-un regime spent much of last year carrying out nuclear and missile provocations, which deteriorated tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
In response, the US stepped up the pressure saying “all options are on the table.” There were speculations that the Trump administration is seriously considering a limited strike on North Korea to send a message that provocations would not be tolerated, though it has said it prefers a diplomatic option.
The situation on the peninsula took a dramatic turn in January, following Kim’s New Year speech, in which he offered to participate in the PyeongChang Winter Olympics and improve inter-Korean ties.
Building on the Olympics detente, Kim is now reaching out to the US, saying he is ready to bargain away the nuclear and missile weapons programs.
While Seoul stresses the positive aspects of the developments, some say Kim’s actions are nothing unexpected and have been part of the young leader’s strategy all along, as the North now holds a powerful bargaining chip -- nuclear weapons programs he declared had been completed in November last year.
“Things are playing out as North Korea has planned, according to his own timeline. It has its own schedule that it wanted to become a military power and then move on to become an economic power. It is about time for North Korea to come to a negotiating table,” said Cho Sung-ryeol, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Strategy.
“The maximum pressure campaign might have accelerated the implementation of North Korea‘s strategy, but mainly it is confidence that it now has a nuclear weapons programs completed.”
Victor Cha, a former White House official, said in an article published by the CSIS that North Korea’s diplomatic overtures must be viewed in the context of its overall byungjin strategy -- which sees national strategic objectives as defined by the development of nuclear weapons and economic development, not a tradeoff of one for the other.
“Thus, Pyongyang’s overtures may not represent a watershed change in strategy, but a tactical shift, building on the platform of nuclear weapons to seek economic benefits from the outside world,” Cha wrote.
Another factor may be China, another expert said.
“I think China also played a role in leading Kim to a negotiating table,” said Park Won-gon, professor at Handong University. “China has joined the sanctions regime against North Korea and has warned that it cannot protect North Korea anymore as long as it continues to make nuclear and missile provocations.”
China never took the ultimate step of stopping oil from flowing into North Korea, keeping the regime afloat, but Park said, “For North Korea, it cannot rely solely on China anymore.”
By Ock Hyun-ju (laeticia.ock@heraldcorp.com)
On Friday, the White House confirmed that Trump will meet North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un by May to achieve denuclearization, suggesting that Seoul’s envoys conveyed conditions satisfactory to the US leader.
Trump, who once called Kim a “little rocket man” and threatened to rain “fire and fury” on the isolated country, has maintained that dialogue with North Korea is only possible when the reclusive regime shows serious intent for denuclearization. North Korea appears to have met the preconditions now.
While details remain undisclosed, there are speculations that Trump accepted North Korea’s proposal for talks in return for its promise to stop developing its intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the US mainland or to allow inspections of its nuclear facilities in his country to dismantle its nuclear and missile programs in a verifiable way.
For what many see as a historic breakthrough to tackling the nuclear standoff on the Korean Peninsula, South Korean President Moon Jae-in and his top security advisor Chung Eui-yong have praised Trump’s maximum pressure campaign.
Experts, however, say that a number of factors -- including pressure from the US -- are at play, or it is a scenario North Korea has wanted to play all along.
Robert A. Manning, a senior fellow in the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, said there are “combined factors” behind the dramatic shift in North Korea’s posture.
“This is the first time comprehensive economic sanctions, ‘maximum pressure’ have been applied to North Korea, evidence suggests it is disrupting his economy and affecting the elite that is his base of support,” he said.
“Kim’s 25 missile tests and 3 nuclear tests have given him more confidence he can deter the US; Trump’s erratic, ‘madman’ demeanor has struck fear into Kim that Trump might actually attack.“
There are signs that multilayered sanctions against North Korea started to cause damage to its economy.
Lee Suk, a senior researcher at the Korea Development Institute, said in a report published on North Korea’s economy that North Korea’s industrial activities, agricultural production, trade are taking a hit from the international sanctions.
Its exports to China, its biggest trade partner, have dropped for 10 months straight between March and December last year, according to the report.
After the United Nations Security Council passed the 2375 resolution in September last year and China joined the sanctions regime, it saw a stiffer decease in its exports to China by up to 83 percent between October and December, the report said.
The United Nations Security Council first passed Resolution 1718 condemning the country’s first nuclear test and imposed sanctions on the communist state, including the supply of heavy weaponry, missile technology and material.
But in the wake of a series of North Korea’s nuclear and missile tests, the UNSC began to target the overall economy of North Korea. The UNSC adopted the sanctions resolution 2375 after the North’s sixth nuclear test on Sept. 3, aiming to slash North Korea‘s oil imports by 30 percent and ban exports of North Korean textiles. In December 2017, UNSC passed Resolution 2397 imposing restrictions on oil imports, as well as metal, agricultural and labor exports.
Others say it is too early to tell whether sanctions are actually biting.
“I think sanctions started to affect North Korea’s economy, but it remains to be seen how much of a toll the sanctions are taking,” Lim Kang-taeg, a researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification. “North Korea‘s imports and exports cannot help but decease this year.”
“Given the North Korean regime’s system and pattern of decisions made so far, economic problems are not its main concerns. It may see it as the right time to talk to the US to get a security guarantee it wants, with the US increasingly considering a military option.”
The Kim Jong-un regime spent much of last year carrying out nuclear and missile provocations, which deteriorated tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
In response, the US stepped up the pressure saying “all options are on the table.” There were speculations that the Trump administration is seriously considering a limited strike on North Korea to send a message that provocations would not be tolerated, though it has said it prefers a diplomatic option.
The situation on the peninsula took a dramatic turn in January, following Kim’s New Year speech, in which he offered to participate in the PyeongChang Winter Olympics and improve inter-Korean ties.
Building on the Olympics detente, Kim is now reaching out to the US, saying he is ready to bargain away the nuclear and missile weapons programs.
While Seoul stresses the positive aspects of the developments, some say Kim’s actions are nothing unexpected and have been part of the young leader’s strategy all along, as the North now holds a powerful bargaining chip -- nuclear weapons programs he declared had been completed in November last year.
“Things are playing out as North Korea has planned, according to his own timeline. It has its own schedule that it wanted to become a military power and then move on to become an economic power. It is about time for North Korea to come to a negotiating table,” said Cho Sung-ryeol, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Strategy.
“The maximum pressure campaign might have accelerated the implementation of North Korea‘s strategy, but mainly it is confidence that it now has a nuclear weapons programs completed.”
Victor Cha, a former White House official, said in an article published by the CSIS that North Korea’s diplomatic overtures must be viewed in the context of its overall byungjin strategy -- which sees national strategic objectives as defined by the development of nuclear weapons and economic development, not a tradeoff of one for the other.
“Thus, Pyongyang’s overtures may not represent a watershed change in strategy, but a tactical shift, building on the platform of nuclear weapons to seek economic benefits from the outside world,” Cha wrote.
Another factor may be China, another expert said.
“I think China also played a role in leading Kim to a negotiating table,” said Park Won-gon, professor at Handong University. “China has joined the sanctions regime against North Korea and has warned that it cannot protect North Korea anymore as long as it continues to make nuclear and missile provocations.”
China never took the ultimate step of stopping oil from flowing into North Korea, keeping the regime afloat, but Park said, “For North Korea, it cannot rely solely on China anymore.”
By Ock Hyun-ju (laeticia.ock@heraldcorp.com)
(责任编辑:资讯)
推荐文章
-
Best smartphone deal: Google Pixel 8a on sale for $449 at Amazon
SAVE $50:As of August 27, get the Google Pixel 8a for $449, down from $499, at Amazon. That's 10% of ...[详细] -
买房的时候,很多人都非常关注房屋采光通风的好坏。采光关系到室内光线的明暗,通风则关系到室内空气是否能自然流通。只看房屋的朝向来判断采光和通风好不好是远远不够的。那么,买房的时候怎么看房子的采光通风好不 ...[详细]
-
百余款粤字号农产品将再次亮相国际大展-深圳西雅展_南方+_南方plus营养美味的粤味预制菜、清爽可口的发酵果汁饮料、香味浓郁的丝苗米、香鲜润滑的食用菌、极致口感的黑松露鹅肝、醇厚甜润的英德红茶.... ...[详细]
-
四川省第15届少数民族传统体育运动会9月3日即将在甘孜藏族自治州康定市拉开帷幕,9月1日,赛事组委会召开新闻发布会,就赛事的筹备情况进行了介绍。此次运动会有来自甘孜、阿坝、凉山、成都、攀枝花、雅安、成 ...[详细]
-
I got a chance to play around with the Pixel 9 Pro XL, and man, it looks like we have to completely ...[详细]
-
荣升5A级!侨益物流聚焦农产品供应链再获国家级认可_南方+_南方plus近日,全国第三十六批A级物流企业名单和2023年上半年通过复核A级物流企业名单向社会公示,名单包括697家A级物流企业以及同期完 ...[详细]
-
增城农特产组团亮相第31届广州博览会_南方+_南方plus8月25-28日,2023年第31届广州博览会在中国进出口商品交易会展馆A馆3.1开幕。广州市增城区11家农业企业精选数十种名优农特产参展,一 ...[详细]
-
龙州县龙州镇人大代表调研粤桂协作引进企业了解营商环境_南方+_南方plus8月22-25日,龙州镇人大履职中心按照崇左市相关要求,组织了龙州镇各村社区)人大代表联络站进站履职活动。此次活动以“优化营商 ...[详细]
-
This photo, carried on Wednesday, shows the North test-firing a 240mm multiple rocket launcher with ...[详细]
-
雅安日报/北纬网讯日前,市中级人民法院对全市基层法院开展家事审判方式和工作机制改革情况进行调研,分析试点工作开展情况,结合目前存在问题对下一步工作进行安排部署。在下一步工作中,全市法院将认真落实家事审 ...[详细]
热点阅读